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Estrela U23 vs Benfica U23 — League #701 2026

Estrela U23
Estrela U23
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Benfica U23
Benfica U23
G. Ferreira 85'
J. Afonso 25'
12/2/2025League #701League #701 · Round 14Estádio das Seixas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Estrela U2343%
×Draw23%
Benfica U2334%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrela U23
1.73
Benfica U23
1.52

Estrela U23 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Estrela U23
1.83
Benfica U23
1.71

allows per match

Estrela U23
1.33
Benfica U23
1.64

finishing

Estrela U23+0.00on par
Benfica U23+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrela U23 ↓

Benfica U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Estrela U23 or draw
66%
Estrela U23 or Benfica U23
77%
Draw or Benfica U23
57%

Winning margin

Estrela U23 wins by 2+
22%
Benfica U23 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Estrela U23 1+ goals
82%
Estrela U23 2+ goals
52%
Estrela U23 3+ goals
25%
Benfica U23 1+ goals
78%
Benfica U23 2+ goals
45%
Benfica U23 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Estrela U23 (draw refunded)
56%
Benfica U23 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrela U23 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Benfica U23 away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrela U23 attack 1.83 + Benfica U23 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.73

Benfica U23 attack 1.71 + Estrela U23 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Estrela U23 scores more
43%
level
23%
Benfica U23 scores more
34%

Estrela U23 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Estrela U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
J. Afonso
85'
G. Ferreira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #701: Estrela U23 0–2 Benfica U23

Benfica U23 beat Estrela U23 2-0 in League #701 on December 2, 2025.

Goals: J. Afonso (25'), G. Ferreira (85').

The match was played at Estádio das Seixas in Malveira, Mafra.