Estradense 1–2 Sarriana: Result & Stats

Estradense

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sarriana

10/20/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Campo Municipal do Concello da Estrada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Estradense36%

×Draw27%

Sarriana36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EstradenseExpected goals in this matchSarriana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

Estradense

1.22

Sarriana

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 34 away

1.31

creates per match

1.53

0.91

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Estradense

1.31

Sarriana

1.53

allows per match

Estradense

0.91

Sarriana

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estradense+0.00on par

Sarriana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estradense ↓

Sarriana →

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Estradense or draw

64%

Estradense or Sarriana

73%

Draw or Sarriana

64%

Winning margin

Estradense wins by 2+

16%

Sarriana wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Estradense 1+ goals

70%

Estradense 2+ goals

34%

Estradense 3+ goals

12%

Sarriana 1+ goals

70%

Sarriana 2+ goals

34%

Sarriana 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Estradense (draw refunded)

50%

Sarriana (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Estradense at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.91 · 111 matches

Sarriana away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Estradense attack 1.31 + Sarriana defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sarriana attack 1.53 + Estradense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Estradense scores more

36%

level

27%

Sarriana scores more

36%

Estradense at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Estradense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff