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Estradense vs Pontellas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Estradense
Estradense
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pontellas
Pontellas
1/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Campo Municipal do Concello da Estrada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Estradense59%
×Draw24%
Pontellas17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estradense
1.67
Pontellas
0.76

Estradense creates 120% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 31 away

creates per match

Estradense
1.31
Pontellas
0.61

allows per match

Estradense
0.91
Pontellas
2.03

finishing

Estradense+0.00on par
Pontellas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estradense ↓

Pontellas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Estradense or draw
83%
Estradense or Pontellas
76%
Draw or Pontellas
41%

Winning margin

Estradense wins by 2+
33%
Pontellas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Estradense 1+ goals
81%
Estradense 2+ goals
50%
Estradense 3+ goals
23%
Pontellas 1+ goals
53%
Pontellas 2+ goals
18%
Pontellas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Estradense (draw refunded)
78%
Pontellas (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estradense at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.91 · 111 matches

Pontellas away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estradense attack 1.31 + Pontellas defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.67

Pontellas attack 0.61 + Estradense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Estradense scores more
59%
level
24%
Pontellas scores more
17%

Estradense at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Estradense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Estradense 0–0 Pontellas

Estradense and Pontellas drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 17, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal do Concello da Estrada in A Estrada.