Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Estradense vs Juvenil Ponteareas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Estradense
Estradense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Juvenil Ponteareas
Juvenil Ponteareas
2/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Campo Municipal do Concello da Estrada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Estradense55%
×Draw26%
Juvenil Ponteareas19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estradense
1.50
Juvenil Ponteareas
0.77

Estradense creates 95% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 16 away

creates per match

Estradense
1.31
Juvenil Ponteareas
0.63

allows per match

Estradense
0.91
Juvenil Ponteareas
1.69

finishing

Estradense+0.00on par
Juvenil Ponteareas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estradense ↓

Juvenil Ponteareas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Estradense or draw
81%
Estradense or Juvenil Ponteareas
74%
Draw or Juvenil Ponteareas
45%

Winning margin

Estradense wins by 2+
28%
Juvenil Ponteareas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Estradense 1+ goals
78%
Estradense 2+ goals
44%
Estradense 3+ goals
19%
Juvenil Ponteareas 1+ goals
54%
Juvenil Ponteareas 2+ goals
18%
Juvenil Ponteareas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Estradense (draw refunded)
74%
Juvenil Ponteareas (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estradense at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.91 · 111 matches

Juvenil Ponteareas away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estradense attack 1.31 + Juvenil Ponteareas defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.50

Juvenil Ponteareas attack 0.63 + Estradense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Estradense scores more
55%
level
26%
Juvenil Ponteareas scores more
19%

Estradense at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Estradense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estradense vs Juvenil Ponteareas

Estradense and Juvenil Ponteareas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 16, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Municipal do Concello da Estrada in A Estrada.