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Estradense vs Barco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Estradense
Estradense
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Barco
Barco
9/18/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Campo Municipal do Concello da Estrada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Estradense44%
×Draw27%
Barco29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estradense
1.36
Barco
1.06

Estradense creates 28% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 78 away

creates per match

Estradense
1.31
Barco
1.21

allows per match

Estradense
0.91
Barco
1.42

finishing

Estradense+0.00on par
Barco+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estradense ↓

Barco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Estradense or draw
71%
Estradense or Barco
73%
Draw or Barco
56%

Winning margin

Estradense wins by 2+
20%
Barco wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Estradense 1+ goals
74%
Estradense 2+ goals
39%
Estradense 3+ goals
16%
Barco 1+ goals
65%
Barco 2+ goals
29%
Barco 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Estradense (draw refunded)
60%
Barco (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estradense at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.91 · 111 matches

Barco away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estradense attack 1.31 + Barco defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.36

Barco attack 1.21 + Estradense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Estradense scores more
44%
level
27%
Barco scores more
29%

Estradense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Estradense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estradense vs Barco

Estradense beat Barco 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Municipal do Concello da Estrada in A Estrada.