Estradense 1–0 Atlético Arnoia: Result & Stats

Estradense

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Arnoia

10/12/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Campo Municipal do Concello da Estrada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Estradense59%

×Draw25%

Atlético Arnoia16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EstradenseExpected goals in this matchAtlético Arnoia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.68

Estradense

1.59

Atlético Arnoia

0.68

Estradense creates 134% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 16 away

1.31

creates per match

0.44

0.91

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Estradense

1.31

Atlético Arnoia

0.44

allows per match

Estradense

0.91

Atlético Arnoia

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estradense+0.00on par

Atlético Arnoia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estradense ↓

Atlético Arnoia →

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Estradense or draw

84%

Estradense or Atlético Arnoia

75%

Draw or Atlético Arnoia

41%

Winning margin

Estradense wins by 2+

32%

Atlético Arnoia wins by 2+

Team goals

Estradense 1+ goals

80%

Estradense 2+ goals

47%

Estradense 3+ goals

21%

Atlético Arnoia 1+ goals

49%

Atlético Arnoia 2+ goals

15%

Atlético Arnoia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Estradense (draw refunded)

79%

Atlético Arnoia (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Estradense at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.91 · 111 matches

Atlético Arnoia away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Estradense attack 1.31 + Atlético Arnoia defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.59

Atlético Arnoia attack 0.44 + Estradense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Estradense scores more

59%

level

25%

Atlético Arnoia scores more

16%

Estradense at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Estradense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estradense vs Atlético Arnoia

Estradense beat Atlético Arnoia 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 12, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal do Concello da Estrada in A Estrada.

Estradense vs Atlético Arnoia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Estradense vs Atlético Arnoia