Estradense 0–1 Arzúa: Result & Stats

Estradense

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Arzúa

1/19/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Campo Municipal do Concello da Estrada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Estradense52%

×Draw26%

Arzúa22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EstradenseExpected goals in this matchArzúa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.89

Estradense

1.52

Arzúa

0.89

Estradense creates 71% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 79 away

1.31

creates per match

0.86

0.91

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Estradense

1.31

Arzúa

0.86

allows per match

Estradense

0.91

Arzúa

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estradense+0.00on par

Arzúa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estradense ↓

Arzúa →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Estradense or draw

78%

Estradense or Arzúa

74%

Draw or Arzúa

48%

Winning margin

Estradense wins by 2+

27%

Arzúa wins by 2+

Team goals

Estradense 1+ goals

78%

Estradense 2+ goals

45%

Estradense 3+ goals

20%

Arzúa 1+ goals

59%

Arzúa 2+ goals

22%

Arzúa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Estradense (draw refunded)

70%

Arzúa (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Estradense at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.91 · 111 matches

Arzúa away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.73 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Estradense attack 1.31 + Arzúa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Arzúa attack 0.86 + Estradense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Estradense scores more

52%

level

26%

Arzúa scores more

22%

Estradense at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Estradense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff