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Arzúa vs Estradense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arzúa
Arzúa
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Estradense
Estradense
1/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Estadio Do Viso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Arzúa41%
×Draw27%
Estradense32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arzúa
1.35
Estradense
1.16

Arzúa creates 16% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 109 away

creates per match

Arzúa
1.31
Estradense
1.24

allows per match

Arzúa
1.08
Estradense
1.39

finishing

Arzúa+0.00on par
Estradense+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzúa ↓

Estradense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arzúa or draw
68%
Arzúa or Estradense
73%
Draw or Estradense
59%

Winning margin

Arzúa wins by 2+
19%
Estradense wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Arzúa 1+ goals
74%
Arzúa 2+ goals
39%
Arzúa 3+ goals
15%
Estradense 1+ goals
69%
Estradense 2+ goals
32%
Estradense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Arzúa (draw refunded)
56%
Estradense (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzúa at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 78 matches

Estradense away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzúa attack 1.31 + Estradense defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Estradense attack 1.24 + Arzúa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Arzúa scores more
41%
level
27%
Estradense scores more
32%

Arzúa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Arzúa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arzúa vs Estradense

Estradense beat Arzúa 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Do Viso in Arzúa.