Estoril 2–0 Vilafranquense: Result & Stats

Estoril

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vilafranquense

3/1/2020

Segunda Liga · Round 23Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Estoril52%

×Draw25%

Vilafranquense24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EstorilExpected goals in this matchVilafranquense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.00

Estoril

1.61

Vilafranquense

1.00

Estoril creates 61% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 63 away

1.74

creates per match

1.02

0.98

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Estoril

1.74

Vilafranquense

1.02

allows per match

Estoril

0.98

Vilafranquense

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estoril+0.00on par

Vilafranquense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril ↓

Vilafranquense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Estoril or draw

76%

Estoril or Vilafranquense

75%

Draw or Vilafranquense

48%

Winning margin

Estoril wins by 2+

27%

Vilafranquense wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Estoril 1+ goals

80%

Estoril 2+ goals

48%

Estoril 3+ goals

22%

Vilafranquense 1+ goals

63%

Vilafranquense 2+ goals

26%

Vilafranquense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Estoril (draw refunded)

69%

Vilafranquense (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

Vilafranquense away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.49 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril attack 1.74 + Vilafranquense defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.61

Vilafranquense attack 1.02 + Estoril defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Estoril scores more

52%

level

25%

Vilafranquense scores more

24%

Estoril at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Estoril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff