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Estoril vs Sporting CP — Primeira Liga 2018

Estoril
Estoril
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
5/11/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 33Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Estoril23%
×Draw24%
Sporting CP53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estoril
1.05
Sporting CP
1.73

Sporting CP creates 65% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Estoril
1.29
Sporting CP
1.61

allows per match

Estoril
1.84
Sporting CP
0.81

finishing

Estoril+0.24scores more
Sporting CP+0.68scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril ↓

Sporting CP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Estoril or draw
47%
Estoril or Sporting CP
76%
Draw or Sporting CP
77%

Winning margin

Estoril wins by 2+
8%
Sporting CP wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Estoril 1+ goals
65%
Estoril 2+ goals
28%
Estoril 3+ goals
9%
Sporting CP 1+ goals
82%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
52%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Estoril (draw refunded)
30%
Sporting CP (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.84 · 15 matches

Sporting CP away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril attack 1.29 + Sporting CP defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.05

Sporting CP attack 1.61 + Estoril defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Estoril scores more
23%
level
24%
Sporting CP scores more
53%

Sporting CP at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estoril vs Sporting CP

Sporting CP beat Estoril 1-0 in Primeira Liga on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Estoril.