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Estoril vs Mafra — Taça de Portugal 2018

Estoril
Estoril
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mafra
Mafra
11/26/2023Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio António Coimbra da Mota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Estoril31%
×Draw24%
Mafra45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estoril
1.35
Mafra
1.67

Mafra creates 24% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Estoril
1.57
Mafra
1.64

allows per match

Estoril
1.71
Mafra
1.14

finishing

Estoril+0.00on par
Mafra+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril ↓

Mafra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Estoril or draw
55%
Estoril or Mafra
76%
Draw or Mafra
69%

Winning margin

Estoril wins by 2+
14%
Mafra wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Estoril 1+ goals
74%
Estoril 2+ goals
39%
Estoril 3+ goals
15%
Mafra 1+ goals
81%
Mafra 2+ goals
50%
Mafra 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Estoril (draw refunded)
41%
Mafra (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Mafra away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril attack 1.57 + Mafra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Mafra attack 1.64 + Estoril defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Estoril scores more
31%
level
24%
Mafra scores more
45%

Mafra at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Estoril 2–1 Mafra

Estoril beat Mafra 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Estoril.