Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Estoril vs Lusitano GC Évora — Taça de Portugal 2018

Estoril
Estoril
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Lusitano GC Évora
Lusitano GC Évora
12/9/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio António Coimbra da Mota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Estoril44%
×Draw25%
Lusitano GC Évora30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estoril
1.54
Lusitano GC Évora
1.23

Estoril creates 25% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Estoril
1.57
Lusitano GC Évora
0.75

allows per match

Estoril
1.71
Lusitano GC Évora
1.50

finishing

Estoril+0.00on par
Lusitano GC Évora+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril ↓

Lusitano GC Évora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Estoril or draw
70%
Estoril or Lusitano GC Évora
75%
Draw or Lusitano GC Évora
56%

Winning margin

Estoril wins by 2+
22%
Lusitano GC Évora wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Estoril 1+ goals
79%
Estoril 2+ goals
45%
Estoril 3+ goals
20%
Lusitano GC Évora 1+ goals
71%
Lusitano GC Évora 2+ goals
35%
Lusitano GC Évora 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Estoril (draw refunded)
59%
Lusitano GC Évora (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Lusitano GC Évora away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril attack 1.57 + Lusitano GC Évora defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Lusitano GC Évora attack 0.75 + Estoril defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Estoril scores more
44%
level
25%
Lusitano GC Évora scores more
30%

Estoril at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Estoril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Estoril 5–0 Lusitano GC Évora

Estoril beat Lusitano GC Évora 5-0 in Taça de Portugal on December 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Estoril.