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Estoril vs Cova De Piedade — Segunda Liga 2018

Estoril
Estoril
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cova De Piedade
Cova De Piedade
2/10/2019Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 21Estádio António Coimbra da Mota (Estoril)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Estoril56%
×Draw24%
Cova De Piedade20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estoril
1.69
Cova De Piedade
0.91

Estoril creates 86% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 46 away

creates per match

Estoril
1.74
Cova De Piedade
0.83

allows per match

Estoril
0.98
Cova De Piedade
1.63

finishing

Estoril+0.00on par
Cova De Piedade+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril ↓

Cova De Piedade →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Estoril or draw
80%
Estoril or Cova De Piedade
76%
Draw or Cova De Piedade
44%

Winning margin

Estoril wins by 2+
31%
Cova De Piedade wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Estoril 1+ goals
82%
Estoril 2+ goals
50%
Estoril 3+ goals
24%
Cova De Piedade 1+ goals
60%
Cova De Piedade 2+ goals
23%
Cova De Piedade 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Estoril (draw refunded)
73%
Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

Cova De Piedade away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.63 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril attack 1.74 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Cova De Piedade attack 0.83 + Estoril defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Estoril scores more
56%
level
24%
Cova De Piedade scores more
20%

Estoril at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Estoril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Estoril 2–0 Cova De Piedade

Estoril beat Cova De Piedade 2-0 in Segunda Liga on February 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota (Estoril).