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Estoril vs Casa Pia — Primeira Liga 2018

Estoril
Estoril
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
12/15/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 14Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Estoril40%
×Draw25%
Casa Pia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estoril
1.48
Casa Pia
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Estoril
1.29
Casa Pia
0.89

allows per match

Estoril
1.84
Casa Pia
1.68

finishing

Estoril+0.24scores more
Casa Pia-0.18scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril ↓

Casa Pia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Estoril or draw
65%
Estoril or Casa Pia
75%
Draw or Casa Pia
60%

Winning margin

Estoril wins by 2+
19%
Casa Pia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Estoril 1+ goals
77%
Estoril 2+ goals
43%
Estoril 3+ goals
19%
Casa Pia 1+ goals
74%
Casa Pia 2+ goals
39%
Casa Pia 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Estoril (draw refunded)
54%
Casa Pia (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.84 · 15 matches

Casa Pia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.68 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril attack 1.29 + Casa Pia defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.48

Casa Pia attack 0.89 + Estoril defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Estoril scores more
40%
level
25%
Casa Pia scores more
35%

Estoril at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Estoril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Estoril 0–2 Casa Pia

Casa Pia beat Estoril 2-0 in Primeira Liga on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Estoril.