Estoril U23 4–3 Santa Clara U23: Result & Stats

Estoril U23

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Santa Clara U23

Unknown 90+6', 90+1', 81', 24'

Unknown 82', 69', 20'

5/12/2024

Taça Revelação U23 · Quarter-finalsEstádio António Coimbra da Mota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Estoril U2354%

×Draw19%

Santa Clara U2327%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estoril U23Expected goals in this matchSanta Clara U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.70

1.92

Estoril U23

2.70

Santa Clara U23

1.92

Estoril U23 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

2.73

creates per match

2.67

1.18

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Estoril U23

2.73

Santa Clara U23

2.67

allows per match

Estoril U23

1.18

Santa Clara U23

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estoril U23+0.00on par

Santa Clara U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril U23 ↓

Santa Clara U23 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Estoril U23 or draw

73%

Estoril U23 or Santa Clara U23

81%

Draw or Santa Clara U23

46%

Winning margin

Estoril U23 wins by 2+

35%

Santa Clara U23 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Estoril U23 1+ goals

93%

Estoril U23 2+ goals

75%

Estoril U23 3+ goals

50%

Santa Clara U23 1+ goals

85%

Santa Clara U23 2+ goals

57%

Santa Clara U23 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Estoril U23 (draw refunded)

66%

Santa Clara U23 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril U23 at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Santa Clara U23 away — creates 2.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril U23 attack 2.73 + Santa Clara U23 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.70

Santa Clara U23 attack 2.67 + Estoril U23 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Estoril U23 scores more

54%

level

19%

Santa Clara U23 scores more

27%

Estoril U23 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Estoril U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

24'

69'

81'

82'

90+1'

90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff