Estoril U23 2–1 Portimonense U23: Result & Stats

Estoril U23

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Portimonense U23

Unknown 67', 18'

Unknown 77'

4/27/2022

Taça Revelação U23 · Group Stage - 2Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Estoril U2370%

×Draw17%

Portimonense U2314%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estoril U23Expected goals in this matchPortimonense U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

1.09

Estoril U23

2.62

Portimonense U23

1.09

Estoril U23 creates 140% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

2.73

creates per match

1.00

1.18

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Estoril U23

2.73

Portimonense U23

1.00

allows per match

Estoril U23

1.18

Portimonense U23

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estoril U23+0.00on par

Portimonense U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril U23 ↓

Portimonense U23 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Estoril U23 or draw

86%

Estoril U23 or Portimonense U23

83%

Draw or Portimonense U23

30%

Winning margin

Estoril U23 wins by 2+

48%

Portimonense U23 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Estoril U23 1+ goals

93%

Estoril U23 2+ goals

73%

Estoril U23 3+ goals

48%

Portimonense U23 1+ goals

66%

Portimonense U23 2+ goals

30%

Portimonense U23 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Estoril U23 (draw refunded)

83%

Portimonense U23 (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril U23 at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Portimonense U23 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril U23 attack 2.73 + Portimonense U23 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.62

Portimonense U23 attack 1.00 + Estoril U23 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Estoril U23 scores more

70%

level

17%

Portimonense U23 scores more

14%

Estoril U23 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Estoril U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

67'

77'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff