Estoril Praia W 1–6 Sporting CP W: Result & Stats

Estoril Praia W

FT

1 – 6

HT: 1 – 2

Sporting CP W

1/11/2025

1a Divisão - Women · Round 12Estádio das Seixas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Estoril Praia W9%

×Draw17%

Sporting CP W74%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estoril Praia WExpected goals in this matchSporting CP W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.65

2.28

Estoril Praia W

0.65

Sporting CP W

2.28

Sporting CP W creates 251% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 42 away

0.73

creates per match

2.74

1.82

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Estoril Praia W

0.73

Sporting CP W

2.74

allows per match

Estoril Praia W

1.82

Sporting CP W

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estoril Praia W+0.00on par

Sporting CP W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril Praia W ↓

Sporting CP W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–112%

0–214%

0–311%

0–46%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Estoril Praia W or draw

26%

Estoril Praia W or Sporting CP W

83%

Draw or Sporting CP W

91%

Winning margin

Estoril Praia W wins by 2+

2%

Sporting CP W wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Estoril Praia W 1+ goals

48%

Estoril Praia W 2+ goals

14%

Estoril Praia W 3+ goals

3%

Sporting CP W 1+ goals

90%

Sporting CP W 2+ goals

66%

Sporting CP W 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Estoril Praia W (draw refunded)

11%

Sporting CP W (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril Praia W at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Sporting CP W away — creates 2.74, concedes 0.57 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril Praia W attack 0.73 + Sporting CP W defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.65

Sporting CP W attack 2.74 + Estoril Praia W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Estoril Praia W scores more

9%

level

17%

Sporting CP W scores more

74%

Sporting CP W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Sporting CP W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff