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Estoril Praia W vs Sporting Braga W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Estoril Praia W
Estoril Praia W
FT
1 – 2
Sporting Braga W
Sporting Braga W
10/7/20241a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 5Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Estoril Praia W19%
×Draw22%
Sporting Braga W59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estoril Praia W
0.99
Sporting Braga W
1.94

Sporting Braga W creates 96% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 42 away

creates per match

Estoril Praia W
0.73
Sporting Braga W
2.07

allows per match

Estoril Praia W
1.82
Sporting Braga W
1.26

finishing

Estoril Praia W+0.00on par
Sporting Braga W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril Praia W ↓

Sporting Braga W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Estoril Praia W or draw
41%
Estoril Praia W or Sporting Braga W
78%
Draw or Sporting Braga W
81%

Winning margin

Estoril Praia W wins by 2+
7%
Sporting Braga W wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Estoril Praia W 1+ goals
63%
Estoril Praia W 2+ goals
26%
Estoril Praia W 3+ goals
8%
Sporting Braga W 1+ goals
86%
Sporting Braga W 2+ goals
58%
Sporting Braga W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Estoril Praia W (draw refunded)
24%
Sporting Braga W (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril Praia W at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Sporting Braga W away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril Praia W attack 0.73 + Sporting Braga W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.99

Sporting Braga W attack 2.07 + Estoril Praia W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Estoril Praia W scores more
19%
level
22%
Sporting Braga W scores more
59%

Sporting Braga W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sporting Braga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estoril Praia W vs Sporting Braga W

Sporting Braga W beat Estoril Praia W 2-1 in 1a Divisão - Women on October 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Estoril.