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Estoril Praia W vs Marítimo W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Estoril Praia W
Estoril Praia W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Marítimo W
Marítimo W
10/13/20241a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 6Estádio das Seixas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Estoril Praia W34%
×Draw25%
Marítimo W41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estoril Praia W
1.30
Marítimo W
1.46

Marítimo W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 43 away

creates per match

Estoril Praia W
0.73
Marítimo W
1.09

allows per match

Estoril Praia W
1.82
Marítimo W
1.88

finishing

Estoril Praia W+0.00on par
Marítimo W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril Praia W ↓

Marítimo W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Estoril Praia W or draw
59%
Estoril Praia W or Marítimo W
75%
Draw or Marítimo W
66%

Winning margin

Estoril Praia W wins by 2+
15%
Marítimo W wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Estoril Praia W 1+ goals
73%
Estoril Praia W 2+ goals
37%
Estoril Praia W 3+ goals
14%
Marítimo W 1+ goals
77%
Marítimo W 2+ goals
43%
Marítimo W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Estoril Praia W (draw refunded)
45%
Marítimo W (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril Praia W at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Marítimo W away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.88 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril Praia W attack 0.73 + Marítimo W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.30

Marítimo W attack 1.09 + Estoril Praia W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Estoril Praia W scores more
34%
level
25%
Marítimo W scores more
41%

Marítimo W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Marítimo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estoril Praia W vs Marítimo W

Estoril Praia W and Marítimo W drew 0-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio das Seixas in Malveira, Mafra.