Estoril Praia W 0–0 Albergaria W: Result & Stats

Estoril Praia W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Albergaria W

2/2/2025

1a Divisão - Women · Round 15Estádio das Seixas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Estoril Praia W51%

×Draw23%

Albergaria W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estoril Praia WExpected goals in this matchAlbergaria W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.22

Estoril Praia W

1.82

Albergaria W

1.22

Estoril Praia W creates 49% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 33 away

0.73

creates per match

0.61

1.82

allows per match

2.91

creates per match

Estoril Praia W

0.73

Albergaria W

0.61

allows per match

Estoril Praia W

1.82

Albergaria W

2.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estoril Praia W+0.00on par

Albergaria W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril Praia W ↓

Albergaria W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Estoril Praia W or draw

74%

Estoril Praia W or Albergaria W

77%

Draw or Albergaria W

49%

Winning margin

Estoril Praia W wins by 2+

29%

Albergaria W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Estoril Praia W 1+ goals

84%

Estoril Praia W 2+ goals

54%

Estoril Praia W 3+ goals

27%

Albergaria W 1+ goals

70%

Albergaria W 2+ goals

34%

Albergaria W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Estoril Praia W (draw refunded)

67%

Albergaria W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril Praia W at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Albergaria W away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril Praia W attack 0.73 + Albergaria W defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 1.82

Albergaria W attack 0.61 + Estoril Praia W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Estoril Praia W scores more

51%

level

23%

Albergaria W scores more

26%

Estoril Praia W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Estoril Praia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff