Estonia W 0–1 Ukraine W: Result & Stats

Estonia W

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ukraine W

O. Ovdiychuk 45'

4/11/2023

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Sportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Estonia W54%

×Draw24%

Ukraine W23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estonia WExpected goals in this matchUkraine W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.03

Estonia W

1.73

Ukraine W

1.03

Estonia W creates 68% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

0.80

creates per match

0.67

1.40

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Estonia W

0.80

Ukraine W

0.67

allows per match

Estonia W

1.40

Ukraine W

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estonia W+0.00on par

Ukraine W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estonia W ↓

Ukraine W →

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Estonia W or draw

77%

Estonia W or Ukraine W

76%

Draw or Ukraine W

46%

Winning margin

Estonia W wins by 2+

30%

Ukraine W wins by 2+

Team goals

Estonia W 1+ goals

82%

Estonia W 2+ goals

52%

Estonia W 3+ goals

25%

Ukraine W 1+ goals

64%

Ukraine W 2+ goals

28%

Ukraine W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Estonia W (draw refunded)

70%

Ukraine W (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Estonia W at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Ukraine W away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Estonia W attack 0.80 + Ukraine W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ukraine W attack 0.67 + Estonia W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Estonia W scores more

54%

level

24%

Ukraine W scores more

23%

Estonia W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Estonia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

T. Khimich

45'

O. Ovdiychuk

46'

G. Daut← G. Daut

46'

R. Mehevets← R. Mehevets

67'

E. Treiberg← E. Treiberg

90+2'

R. Mehevets

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff