Estonia W 0–1 Latvia W: Result & Stats

Estonia W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Latvia W

K. Miksone 17' (pen)

10/24/2025

Friendlies Women · FriendliesRaudondvario stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Estonia W29%

×Draw31%

Latvia W40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estonia WExpected goals in this matchLatvia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.10

Estonia W

0.90

Latvia W

1.10

Latvia W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

0.80

creates per match

0.80

1.40

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Estonia W

0.80

Latvia W

0.80

allows per match

Estonia W

1.40

Latvia W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estonia W+0.00on par

Latvia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estonia W ↓

Latvia W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Estonia W or draw

60%

Estonia W or Latvia W

69%

Draw or Latvia W

71%

Winning margin

Estonia W wins by 2+

10%

Latvia W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Estonia W 1+ goals

59%

Estonia W 2+ goals

23%

Estonia W 3+ goals

6%

Latvia W 1+ goals

67%

Latvia W 2+ goals

30%

Latvia W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Estonia W (draw refunded)

42%

Latvia W (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estonia W at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Latvia W away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estonia W attack 0.80 + Latvia W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Latvia W attack 0.80 + Estonia W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Estonia W scores more

29%

level

31%

Latvia W scores more

40%

Latvia W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Latvia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

K. MiksonePenalty

Estonia

Latvia

23

13

22

6

9

8

20

14

4

19

⚽

18

12

3

16

18

11

4

20

2

6

19

9

Estonia W substitutes

13Kruusmann1Vihman21Tullus23Orav8Silina24Joandi5Rannasto15Kelli17Fjodorova25Treiberg22Teern7Lillemets

Manager: L. Vāciete

Latvia W substitutes

12Torgosova2Steinberga3Upite5Baltrusaite7Ansone10Rocane11Suvitra15Valaka16Preijere17Danilova21Senberga

Match Recap: Estonia W vs Latvia W

Latvia W beat Estonia W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on October 24, 2025.

Goals: K. Miksone (17' pen).

The match was played at Raudondvario stadionas in Raudondvario.

Estonia W vs Latvia W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Estonia W vs Latvia W