Estonia W 1–1 Bosnia-Herzegovina W: Result & Stats

Estonia W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bosnia-Herzegovina W

V. Kubassova 10'

M. Hasanbegovic 23'

6/9/2026

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · Group Stage - 6Parnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Estonia W31%

×Draw24%

Bosnia-Herzegovina W45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estonia WExpected goals in this matchBosnia-Herzegovina W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.67

Estonia W

1.33

Bosnia-Herzegovina W

1.67

Bosnia-Herzegovina W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

2.33

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Estonia W

1.67

Bosnia-Herzegovina W

2.33

allows per match

Estonia W

1.00

Bosnia-Herzegovina W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estonia W+0.00on par

Bosnia-Herzegovina W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estonia W ↓

Bosnia-Herzegovina W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Estonia W or draw

55%

Estonia W or Bosnia-Herzegovina W

76%

Draw or Bosnia-Herzegovina W

69%

Winning margin

Estonia W wins by 2+

13%

Bosnia-Herzegovina W wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Estonia W 1+ goals

74%

Estonia W 2+ goals

38%

Estonia W 3+ goals

15%

Bosnia-Herzegovina W 1+ goals

81%

Bosnia-Herzegovina W 2+ goals

50%

Bosnia-Herzegovina W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Estonia W (draw refunded)

40%

Bosnia-Herzegovina W (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estonia W at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina W away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estonia W attack 1.67 + Bosnia-Herzegovina W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bosnia-Herzegovina W attack 2.33 + Estonia W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Estonia W scores more

31%

level

24%

Bosnia-Herzegovina W scores more

45%

Bosnia-Herzegovina W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bosnia-Herzegovina W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

V. Kubassova

23'

M. Hasanbegovic↳ E. Husic

46'

K. Saulus← M. Lillemae

46'

K. Purgats← L. Manniste

60'

E. Husic

62'

K. Tullus← K. Rosen

70'

A. Grebenar← E. Husic

78'

D. Bratovic← S. Muhic

78'

A. Cule← S. Kapetanovic

79'

L. Palts← A. Kala

82'

A. Jotkina← K. Purgats

86'

M. Hasanbegovic

Estonia

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1

Polozen

13

▼

Muhic

15

Hrelja

6

⚽

Hasanbego

3

Gavric

11

▼

Kapetanov

21

A

▼

8

10

9

7

12

16

▼

Rosen

5

Repkin

3

Raamet

18

▼

Kala

17

▼

Lillemae

11

Salei

21

▼

Manniste

19

⚽

Kubassova

14

Tammik

9

Kirpu

46'▲K. Saulus←▼M. Lillemae

46'▲K. Purgats←▼L. Manniste

62'▲K. Tullus←▼K. Rosen

79'▲L. Palts←▼A. Kala

82'▲A. Jotkina←▼K. Purgats

Estonia W substitutes

1Vihman13Liimets2Tullus4Palts6Saulus7Merisalu8Purgats10Polstjanova15Juzaninova20Rannasto22Teern23Jotkina

Manager: S. Hodžić

70'▲A. Grebenar←▼E. Husic

78'▲D. Bratovic←▼S. Muhic

78'▲A. Cule←▼S. Kapetanovic

Bosnia-Herzegovina W substitutes

12Dumanjic22Karacic2Denda4Velagic14Bratovic16Cule17Brnic18Radulovic19Garibija20Crnoja23Grebenar