Estonia 3–1 Azerbaijan: Result & Stats

Estonia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Azerbaijan

R. Shein 71'

V. Sinyavskiy 45+2'

I. Yakovlev 32'

T. Bayramov 45+1' (pen)

10/11/2024

UEFA Nations League · League C - 3A. Le Coq Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Estonia48%

×Draw27%

Azerbaijan25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EstoniaExpected goals in this matchAzerbaijan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.94

Estonia

1.43

Azerbaijan

0.94

Estonia creates 52% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

1.10

creates per match

0.67

1.20

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Estonia

1.10

Azerbaijan

0.67

allows per match

Estonia

1.20

Azerbaijan

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estonia+0.00on par

Azerbaijan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estonia ↓

Azerbaijan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Estonia or draw

75%

Estonia or Azerbaijan

73%

Draw or Azerbaijan

52%

Winning margin

Estonia wins by 2+

24%

Azerbaijan wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Estonia 1+ goals

76%

Estonia 2+ goals

42%

Estonia 3+ goals

17%

Azerbaijan 1+ goals

61%

Azerbaijan 2+ goals

24%

Azerbaijan 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Estonia (draw refunded)

66%

Azerbaijan (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estonia at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Azerbaijan away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estonia attack 1.10 + Azerbaijan defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.43

Azerbaijan attack 0.67 + Estonia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Estonia scores more

48%

level

27%

Azerbaijan scores more

25%

Estonia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Estonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

R. Shein

Estonia · M

8.2

Match Events

29'

R. Peetson← M. Paskotši

32'

I. Yakovlev

37'

Rocco Robert Shein

45+1'

T. BayramovPenalty

45+2'

V. Sinyavskiy↳ R. Shein

58'

Henri Anier

64'

C. Nurıyev← C. Diniyev

64'

M. Emreli← T. Bayramov

68'

S. Zenjov← I. Yakovlev

68'

E. Sorga← H. Anier

71'

R. Shein↳ M. Ainsalu

76'

E. Mahmudov← A. Isaev

77'

Q. Alıyev← A. Hüseynov

82'

R. Əhmədzadə← R. Dadashov

84'

M. Vetkal← R. Shein

84'

M. Poom← M. Käit

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstoniaAzerbaijan

Overview

33%Possession67%

10Total Shots15

0Corners8

18Fouls3

Shots

10Total Shots15

4On Target5

4Off Target5

2Blocked5

2Inside Box12

8Outside Box3

Passing

33%Possession67%

306Total Passes610

233Accurate Passes532

76%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls3

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides2