Estonia U19 0–2 North Macedonia U19: Result & Stats

Estonia U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

North Macedonia U19

A. Ljatifi 65'

E. Sabotikj 20'

11/18/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Estonia U1933%

×Draw24%

North Macedonia U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estonia U19Expected goals in this matchNorth Macedonia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.61

Estonia U19

1.39

North Macedonia U19

1.61

North Macedonia U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

0.57

creates per match

0.93

2.29

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Estonia U19

0.57

North Macedonia U19

0.93

allows per match

Estonia U19

2.29

North Macedonia U19

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estonia U19+0.00on par

North Macedonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estonia U19 ↓

North Macedonia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Estonia U19 or draw

57%

Estonia U19 or North Macedonia U19

76%

Draw or North Macedonia U19

67%

Winning margin

Estonia U19 wins by 2+

15%

North Macedonia U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Estonia U19 1+ goals

75%

Estonia U19 2+ goals

40%

Estonia U19 3+ goals

16%

North Macedonia U19 1+ goals

80%

North Macedonia U19 2+ goals

48%

North Macedonia U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Estonia U19 (draw refunded)

44%

North Macedonia U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estonia U19 at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

North Macedonia U19 away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estonia U19 attack 0.57 + North Macedonia U19 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.39

North Macedonia U19 attack 0.93 + Estonia U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Estonia U19 scores more

33%

level

24%

North Macedonia U19 scores more

43%

North Macedonia U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "North Macedonia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

E. Sabotikj↳ L. Atanasovski

46'

A. Kollo← N. Kalmokov

46'

S. Alamaa← A. Kaares

61'

T. Hint← H. Liiv

64'

A. Aslani← N. Ceka

65'

A. Ljatifi↳ N. Damjanovski

69'

R. Nigula← A. Lohmatov

74'

K. Andonovski← E. Sabotikj

74'

A. Loki← H. Ali

77'

M. Vaino← M. Skvortsov

85'

L. Kasami← A. Ljatifi

85'

A. Mehmed← M. Kish

90+3'

D. Stojanoski

Estonia

North

1

Iloski

15

▼

Ceka

5

A

Atanasovs

6

Stojanosk

2

Radevski

10

▼

Kish

4

⚽

▼

Sabotikj

8

A

Damjanovs

3

Murdjeski

9

▼

Ali

7

⚽

▼

1

20

5

19

▼

Liiv

14

▼

Kalmokov

6

Valdmets

8

Wagner

7

▼

Lohmatov

10

▼

Skvortsov

15

Limberg

18

▼

Kaares

46'▲A. Kollo←▼N. Kalmokov

46'▲S. Alamaa←▼A. Kaares

61'▲T. Hint←▼H. Liiv

69'▲R. Nigula←▼A. Lohmatov

77'▲M. Vaino←▼M. Skvortsov

Estonia U19 substitutes

12Lahe3Nigula4Vaino11Baljabkin13Hint16Pizzol17Kollo23Alamaa

Manager: V. Stanojković

64'▲A. Aslani←▼N. Ceka

74'▲K. Andonovski←▼E. Sabotikj

74'▲A. Loki←▼H. Ali

85'▲L. Kasami←▼A. Ljatifi

85'▲A. Mehmed←▼M. Kish

North Macedonia U19 substitutes

12Trajkovski11Brankovski13Krener14Aslani16Ristov17Andonovski18Kasami19Loki20Mehmed