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Estonia U19 vs Israel U19 — Friendlies 2026

Estonia U19
Estonia U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Israel U19
Israel U19
O. De Pizzol 70'
A. Lohmatov 38' (pen)
A. Talpa 25'
9/7/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Estonia U1956%
×Draw20%
Israel U1924%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estonia U19
2.33
Israel U19
1.50

Estonia U19 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Estonia U19
3.67
Israel U19
1.67

allows per match

Estonia U19
1.33
Israel U19
1.00

finishing

Estonia U19+0.00on par
Israel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estonia U19 ↓

Israel U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Estonia U19 or draw
76%
Estonia U19 or Israel U19
80%
Draw or Israel U19
44%

Winning margin

Estonia U19 wins by 2+
35%
Israel U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Estonia U19 1+ goals
90%
Estonia U19 2+ goals
67%
Estonia U19 3+ goals
41%
Israel U19 1+ goals
78%
Israel U19 2+ goals
44%
Israel U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Estonia U19 (draw refunded)
70%
Israel U19 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estonia U19 at home — creates 3.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Israel U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estonia U19 attack 3.67 + Israel U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Israel U19 attack 1.67 + Estonia U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Estonia U19 scores more
56%
level
20%
Israel U19 scores more
24%

Estonia U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Estonia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
A. Talpa
38'
A. LohmatovPenalty
70'
O. De Pizzol

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estonia U19 vs Israel U19

Estonia U19 beat Israel U19 2-1 in Friendlies on September 7, 2025.

Goals: A. Talpa (25'), A. Lohmatov (38' pen), O. De Pizzol (70').