Estonia U19 0–3 Iceland U19: Result & Stats

Estonia U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Iceland U19

11/21/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 8Stade Marcel-Garcin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Estonia U1919%

×Draw22%

Iceland U1958%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estonia U19Expected goals in this matchIceland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.88

Estonia U19

0.98

Iceland U19

1.88

Iceland U19 creates 92% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

0.57

creates per match

1.47

2.29

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Estonia U19

0.57

Iceland U19

1.47

allows per match

Estonia U19

2.29

Iceland U19

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estonia U19+0.00on par

Iceland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estonia U19 ↓

Iceland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Estonia U19 or draw

42%

Estonia U19 or Iceland U19

78%

Draw or Iceland U19

81%

Winning margin

Estonia U19 wins by 2+

7%

Iceland U19 wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Estonia U19 1+ goals

62%

Estonia U19 2+ goals

26%

Estonia U19 3+ goals

8%

Iceland U19 1+ goals

85%

Iceland U19 2+ goals

56%

Iceland U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Estonia U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Iceland U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estonia U19 at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Iceland U19 away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estonia U19 attack 0.57 + Iceland U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.98

Iceland U19 attack 1.47 + Estonia U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Estonia U19 scores more

19%

level

22%

Iceland U19 scores more

58%

Iceland U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Iceland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff