Estonia U19 0–3 Greece U19: Result & Stats

Estonia U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Greece U19

V. Nikolaou 90+6'

S. Tzimas 27' (pen), 21'

3/22/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Waterford Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Estonia U1915%

×Draw21%

Greece U1964%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estonia U19Expected goals in this matchGreece U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.98

Estonia U19

0.82

Greece U19

1.98

Greece U19 creates 141% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

0.57

creates per match

1.67

2.29

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Estonia U19

0.57

Greece U19

1.67

allows per match

Estonia U19

2.29

Greece U19

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estonia U19+0.00on par

Greece U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estonia U19 ↓

Greece U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Estonia U19 or draw

36%

Estonia U19 or Greece U19

79%

Draw or Greece U19

85%

Winning margin

Estonia U19 wins by 2+

4%

Greece U19 wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Estonia U19 1+ goals

56%

Estonia U19 2+ goals

20%

Estonia U19 3+ goals

5%

Greece U19 1+ goals

86%

Greece U19 2+ goals

59%

Greece U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Estonia U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Greece U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estonia U19 at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Greece U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estonia U19 attack 0.57 + Greece U19 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.82

Greece U19 attack 1.67 + Estonia U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Estonia U19 scores more

15%

level

21%

Greece U19 scores more

64%

Greece U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Greece U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

S. Tzimas

26'

K. Kait

27'

S. TzimasPenalty

31'

N. Spyrakos

46'

A. Švedovski← O. Otti

46'

C. Georgiadis← E. Tasiouras

55'

G. Lehtmets← A. Sakarias

66'

A. Golfinos← D. Kottas

66'

C. Stavropoulos← L. Smyrlis

70'

R. Smirnov← D. Luts

73'

G. Kyriopoulos← K. Goumas

73'

V. Nikolaou← S. Tzimas

84'

M. Kolobov

90+6'

M. Orlov← E. Õunapuu

90+6'

V. Nikolaou

Estonia

Greece

1

6

3

4

20

▼

Tasiouras

17

▼

Goumas

14

▼

Kottas

16

Symeonidi

10

▼

Smyrlis

19

Spyrakos

21

⚽2

▼

Tzimas

1

Nõmm

4

▼

5

23

2

8

11

16

▼

Sakarias

3

Käit

9

▼

Õunapuu

7

▼

Luts

Manager: A. Bärengrub

46'▲A. Švedovski←▼O. Otti

55'▲G. Lehtmets←▼A. Sakarias

70'▲R. Smirnov←▼D. Luts

90+6'▲M. Orlov←▼E. Õunapuu

Estonia U19 substitutes

13Švedovski10Lehtmets14Smirnov20Orlov12Pareiko17Mustmaa18Ernits

Manager: T. Theos

46'▲C. Georgiadis←▼E. Tasiouras

66'▲A. Golfinos←▼D. Kottas

66'▲C. Stavropoulos←▼L. Smyrlis

73'▲G. Kyriopoulos←▼K. Goumas

73'▲V. Nikolaou←▼S. Tzimas

Greece U19 substitutes

2Georgiadis18Golfinos15Stavropoulos11Kyriopoulos8Nikolaou5Prodromitis12Botis

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Estonia U19 0–3 Greece U19

Greece U19 beat Estonia U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 22, 2023.

Goals: S. Tzimas (21', 27' pen), V. Nikolaou (90+6').

The match was played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Waterford.

Estonia U19 vs Greece U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Estonia U19 0–3 Greece U19