Estonia U19 3–2 Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

Estonia U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

E. Õunapuu 90+4'

D. Luts 86'

G. Lehtmets 56'

A. Prskalo 30'

A. Kahvić 25'

9/27/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Estonia U1924%

×Draw23%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U1952%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estonia U19Expected goals in this matchBosnia-Herzegovina U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.79

Estonia U19

1.14

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.79

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

0.57

creates per match

1.29

2.29

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Estonia U19

0.57

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.29

allows per match

Estonia U19

2.29

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estonia U19+0.00on par

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estonia U19 ↓

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Estonia U19 or draw

48%

Estonia U19 or Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

77%

Draw or Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

76%

Winning margin

Estonia U19 wins by 2+

9%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Estonia U19 1+ goals

68%

Estonia U19 2+ goals

32%

Estonia U19 3+ goals

11%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 1+ goals

83%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 2+ goals

53%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Estonia U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estonia U19 at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estonia U19 attack 0.57 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.14

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 attack 1.29 + Estonia U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Estonia U19 scores more

24%

level

23%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 scores more

52%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

A. Kahvić

29'

S. Merilai

30'

A. Prskalo

46'

G. Lehtmets← A. Sakarias

50'

I. Ramic

52'

A. Bergman

56'

G. Lehtmets

61'

I. Ramic

61'

I. Ramic

61'

N. Kočević← A. Prskalo

72'

A. Vaher

72'

D. Mijatović← S. Šušić

78'

D. Luts← A. Švedovski

78'

D. Peštić← N. Kovač

78'

Z. Plavčić← A. Kahvić

79'

N. Kondratski← R. Sillamaa

79'

O. Otti← H. Palutaja

86'

D. Luts

89'

R. Ernits← M. Orlov

90+5'

E. Ounapuu

90+4'

E. Õunapuu

Estonia

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1

Pršlja

2

Smajić

3

▼

Šušić

15

Mešanović

18

▼

Kovač

10

Krdžalić

4

Prusina

9

⚽

▼

Kahvić

16

⚽

▼

11

7

12

5

▼

14

2

8

3

13

▼

Sillamaa

19

▼

Orlov

20

▼

Sakarias

9

⚽

Õunapuu

11

▼

Švedovski

Manager: A. Bärengrub

46'▲G. Lehtmets←▼A. Sakarias

78'▲D. Luts←▼A. Švedovski

79'▲N. Kondratski←▼R. Sillamaa

79'▲O. Otti←▼H. Palutaja

89'▲R. Ernits←▼M. Orlov

Estonia U19 substitutes

10Lehtmets7Luts17Kondratski15Otti6Ernits4Bergman18Eerme1Hendrikson16Tiigiste

Manager: M. Ivanković

61'▲N. Kočević←▼A. Prskalo

72'▲D. Mijatović←▼S. Šušić

78'▲D. Peštić←▼N. Kovač

78'▲Z. Plavčić←▼A. Kahvić

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 substitutes

8Kočević13Mijatović5Peštić17Plavčić19Bogdanić14Pramenković12Vojvodić