Estonia U19 0–1 Belarus U19: Result & Stats

Estonia U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Belarus U19

D. Latykhov 74' (pen)

10/12/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3Alcufer Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Estonia U1931%

×Draw25%

Belarus U1944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estonia U19Expected goals in this matchBelarus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.58

Estonia U19

1.28

Belarus U19

1.58

Belarus U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

0.57

creates per match

0.88

2.29

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Estonia U19

0.57

Belarus U19

0.88

allows per match

Estonia U19

2.29

Belarus U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estonia U19+0.00on par

Belarus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estonia U19 ↓

Belarus U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Estonia U19 or draw

56%

Estonia U19 or Belarus U19

75%

Draw or Belarus U19

69%

Winning margin

Estonia U19 wins by 2+

13%

Belarus U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Estonia U19 1+ goals

72%

Estonia U19 2+ goals

37%

Estonia U19 3+ goals

14%

Belarus U19 1+ goals

79%

Belarus U19 2+ goals

47%

Belarus U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Estonia U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Belarus U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estonia U19 at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Belarus U19 away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estonia U19 attack 0.57 + Belarus U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Belarus U19 attack 0.88 + Estonia U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Estonia U19 scores more

31%

level

25%

Belarus U19 scores more

44%

Belarus U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Belarus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

M. Vetkal← T. Teeväli

46'

D. Latykhov← E. Karpitskiy

46'

I. Mikhnyuk← A. Kabyshev

54'

J. Kõre← S. Viidas

54'

T. Usta← A. Kiivit

71'

M. Kelement← N. Ivanov

74'

İ. Pranovich← A. Shumanskiy

74'

D. LatykhovPenalty

81'

H. Leoke← D. Kuraksin

83'

A. Tumanau← I. Moskalenchik

90+1'

E. Shedko← A. Kuzmich

Estonia

Belarus

12

15

5

9

6

19

▼

Moskalenc

2

▼

Kabyshev

4

Tarusov

21

▼

Kuzmich

18

▼

Shumanski

7

▼

1

14

3

9

▼

Ivanov

5

Nikolajev

15

Jälle

8

▼

Teeväli

11

▼

Kuraksin

2

▼

Kiivit

18

Smirnov

13

▼

Viidas

Manager: M. Reim

46'▲M. Vetkal←▼T. Teeväli

54'▲J. Kõre←▼S. Viidas

54'▲T. Usta←▼A. Kiivit

71'▲M. Kelement←▼N. Ivanov

81'▲H. Leoke←▼D. Kuraksin

Estonia U19 substitutes

10Vetkal20Kõre19Usta17Kelement7Leoke6Vaher12Raassalu22Rimmel

Manager: V. Korytko

46'▲D. Latykhov←▼E. Karpitskiy

46'▲I. Mikhnyuk←▼A. Kabyshev

74'▲İ. Pranovich←▼A. Shumanskiy

83'▲A. Tumanau←▼I. Moskalenchik

90+1'▲E. Shedko←▼A. Kuzmich

Belarus U19 substitutes

10Latykhov8Mikhnyuk17Pranovich3Tumanau14Shedko1Kudravets13Dushevskiy20Krivtsov11Kunskiy

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Estonia U19 0–1 Belarus U19

Belarus U19 beat Estonia U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 12, 2021.

Goals: D. Latykhov (74' pen).

The match was played at Alcufer Stadion in Győr.

Estonia U19 vs Belarus U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Estonia U19 0–1 Belarus U19