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Estonia U17 vs North Macedonia U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Estonia U17
Estonia U17
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
North Macedonia U17
North Macedonia U17
11/5/2024UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Round 1 - 3AVIS völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Estonia U1730%
×Draw21%
North Macedonia U1749%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estonia U17
1.66
North Macedonia U17
2.17

North Macedonia U17 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Estonia U17
1.00
North Macedonia U17
2.00

allows per match

Estonia U17
2.33
North Macedonia U17
2.31

finishing

Estonia U17+0.00on par
North Macedonia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estonia U17 ↓

North Macedonia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Estonia U17 or draw
51%
Estonia U17 or North Macedonia U17
79%
Draw or North Macedonia U17
70%

Winning margin

Estonia U17 wins by 2+
14%
North Macedonia U17 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Estonia U17 1+ goals
81%
Estonia U17 2+ goals
49%
Estonia U17 3+ goals
23%
North Macedonia U17 1+ goals
89%
North Macedonia U17 2+ goals
64%
North Macedonia U17 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Estonia U17 (draw refunded)
38%
North Macedonia U17 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estonia U17 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

North Macedonia U17 away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estonia U17 attack 1.00 + North Macedonia U17 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.66

North Macedonia U17 attack 2.00 + Estonia U17 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Estonia U17 scores more
30%
level
21%
North Macedonia U17 scores more
49%

North Macedonia U17 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "North Macedonia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estonia U17 vs North Macedonia U17

North Macedonia U17 beat Estonia U17 4-2 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on November 5, 2024.

The match was played at AVIS völlurinn in Reykjavík.