Estonia U17 1–0 Georgia U17: Result & Stats

Estonia U17

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Georgia U17

10/28/2021

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 7Bicskei Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Estonia U1734%

×Draw22%

Georgia U1744%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estonia U17Expected goals in this matchGeorgia U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.90

Estonia U17

1.64

Georgia U17

1.90

Georgia U17 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

1.00

creates per match

1.47

2.33

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Estonia U17

1.00

Georgia U17

1.47

allows per match

Estonia U17

2.33

Georgia U17

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estonia U17+0.00on par

Georgia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estonia U17 ↓

Georgia U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Estonia U17 or draw

56%

Estonia U17 or Georgia U17

78%

Draw or Georgia U17

66%

Winning margin

Estonia U17 wins by 2+

16%

Georgia U17 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Estonia U17 1+ goals

81%

Estonia U17 2+ goals

49%

Estonia U17 3+ goals

23%

Georgia U17 1+ goals

85%

Georgia U17 2+ goals

56%

Georgia U17 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Estonia U17 (draw refunded)

43%

Georgia U17 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estonia U17 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

Georgia U17 away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estonia U17 attack 1.00 + Georgia U17 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.64

Georgia U17 attack 1.47 + Estonia U17 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Estonia U17 scores more

34%

level

22%

Georgia U17 scores more

44%

Georgia U17 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Georgia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff