Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Estonia U17 vs Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Estonia U17
Estonia U17
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
3/26/2022UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Novi Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Estonia U1733%
×Draw24%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U1743%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estonia U17
1.43
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
1.67

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

Estonia U17
1.00
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
1.00

allows per match

Estonia U17
2.33
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
1.86

finishing

Estonia U17+0.00on par
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estonia U17 ↓

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Estonia U17 or draw
57%
Estonia U17 or Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
76%
Draw or Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
67%

Winning margin

Estonia U17 wins by 2+
15%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Estonia U17 1+ goals
76%
Estonia U17 2+ goals
42%
Estonia U17 3+ goals
17%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 1+ goals
81%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 2+ goals
50%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Estonia U17 (draw refunded)
43%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estonia U17 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estonia U17 attack 1.00 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 attack 1.00 + Estonia U17 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Estonia U17 scores more
33%
level
24%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 scores more
43%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Estonia U17 1–2 Bosnia-Herzegovina U17

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 beat Estonia U17 2-1 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Novi Gradski Stadion in Ugljevik.