Estepona 2–2 Melilla CD: Result & Stats

Estepona

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Melilla CD

2/13/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 13Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Estepona53%

×Draw23%

Melilla CD24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EsteponaExpected goals in this matchMelilla CD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.20

Estepona

1.88

Melilla CD

1.20

Estepona creates 57% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

1.14

creates per match

0.82

1.57

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Estepona

1.14

Melilla CD

0.82

allows per match

Estepona

1.57

Melilla CD

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estepona+0.00on par

Melilla CD+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estepona ↓

Melilla CD →

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Estepona or draw

76%

Estepona or Melilla CD

77%

Draw or Melilla CD

47%

Winning margin

Estepona wins by 2+

30%

Melilla CD wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Estepona 1+ goals

85%

Estepona 2+ goals

56%

Estepona 3+ goals

29%

Melilla CD 1+ goals

70%

Melilla CD 2+ goals

34%

Melilla CD 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Estepona (draw refunded)

69%

Melilla CD (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Estepona at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Melilla CD away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Estepona attack 1.14 + Melilla CD defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.88

Melilla CD attack 0.82 + Estepona defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Estepona scores more

53%

level

23%

Melilla CD scores more

24%

Estepona at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Estepona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff