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Estepona vs Maracena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Estepona
Estepona
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Maracena
Maracena
5/9/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Estepona41%
×Draw26%
Maracena32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estepona
1.40
Maracena
1.21

Estepona creates 16% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 61 away

creates per match

Estepona
1.14
Maracena
0.85

allows per match

Estepona
1.57
Maracena
1.67

finishing

Estepona+0.00on par
Maracena+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estepona ↓

Maracena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Estepona or draw
68%
Estepona or Maracena
74%
Draw or Maracena
59%

Winning margin

Estepona wins by 2+
19%
Maracena wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Estepona 1+ goals
75%
Estepona 2+ goals
41%
Estepona 3+ goals
17%
Maracena 1+ goals
70%
Maracena 2+ goals
34%
Maracena 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Estepona (draw refunded)
56%
Maracena (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estepona at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Maracena away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.67 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estepona attack 1.14 + Maracena defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Maracena attack 0.85 + Estepona defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Estepona scores more
41%
level
26%
Maracena scores more
32%

Estepona at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Estepona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estepona vs Maracena

Estepona beat Maracena 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez in Estepona.