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Estepona vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Estepona
Estepona
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Málaga II
Málaga II
11/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 3Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Estepona29%
×Draw26%
Málaga II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estepona
1.12
Málaga II
1.46

Málaga II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 92 away

creates per match

Estepona
1.14
Málaga II
1.35

allows per match

Estepona
1.57
Málaga II
1.10

finishing

Estepona+0.00on par
Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estepona ↓

Málaga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Estepona or draw
55%
Estepona or Málaga II
74%
Draw or Málaga II
71%

Winning margin

Estepona wins by 2+
11%
Málaga II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Estepona 1+ goals
67%
Estepona 2+ goals
31%
Estepona 3+ goals
10%
Málaga II 1+ goals
77%
Málaga II 2+ goals
43%
Málaga II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Estepona (draw refunded)
39%
Málaga II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estepona at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estepona attack 1.14 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.12

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Estepona defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Estepona scores more
29%
level
26%
Málaga II scores more
45%

Málaga II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estepona vs Málaga II

Estepona and Málaga II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez in Estepona.