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Estepona vs Atlético Porcuna — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Estepona
Estepona
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Porcuna
Atlético Porcuna
4/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Estepona40%
×Draw26%
Atlético Porcuna34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estepona
1.42
Atlético Porcuna
1.28

Estepona creates 11% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 94 away

creates per match

Estepona
1.14
Atlético Porcuna
0.99

allows per match

Estepona
1.57
Atlético Porcuna
1.69

finishing

Estepona+0.00on par
Atlético Porcuna+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estepona ↓

Atlético Porcuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Estepona or draw
66%
Estepona or Atlético Porcuna
74%
Draw or Atlético Porcuna
60%

Winning margin

Estepona wins by 2+
19%
Atlético Porcuna wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Estepona 1+ goals
76%
Estepona 2+ goals
41%
Estepona 3+ goals
17%
Atlético Porcuna 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Porcuna 2+ goals
37%
Atlético Porcuna 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Estepona (draw refunded)
54%
Atlético Porcuna (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estepona at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Atlético Porcuna away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.69 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estepona attack 1.14 + Atlético Porcuna defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.42

Atlético Porcuna attack 0.99 + Estepona defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Estepona scores more
40%
level
26%
Atlético Porcuna scores more
34%

Estepona at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Estepona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Estepona 1–1 Atlético Porcuna

Estepona and Atlético Porcuna drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez in Estepona.