Estepona 2–2 Alhaurino: Result & Stats

Estepona

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Alhaurino

Jose Luis 46', 31'

Fran Castillo 30'

Josemi Rey 7'

12/6/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 7Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Estepona37%

×Draw26%

Alhaurino37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EsteponaExpected goals in this matchAlhaurino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.34

Estepona

1.33

Alhaurino

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 47 away

1.14

creates per match

1.11

1.57

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Estepona

1.14

Alhaurino

1.11

allows per match

Estepona

1.57

Alhaurino

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estepona+0.00on par

Alhaurino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estepona ↓

Alhaurino →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Estepona or draw

63%

Estepona or Alhaurino

74%

Draw or Alhaurino

63%

Winning margin

Estepona wins by 2+

16%

Alhaurino wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Estepona 1+ goals

74%

Estepona 2+ goals

38%

Estepona 3+ goals

15%

Alhaurino 1+ goals

74%

Alhaurino 2+ goals

39%

Alhaurino 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Estepona (draw refunded)

50%

Alhaurino (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Estepona at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Alhaurino away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Estepona attack 1.14 + Alhaurino defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Alhaurino attack 1.11 + Estepona defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Estepona scores more

37%

level

26%

Alhaurino scores more

37%

Estepona at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Estepona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Josemi Rey

30'

Fran Castillo

31'

Jose Luis

46'

José← E. Yankey

46'

Jose Luis

59'

S. Pishvaie← Jesús Álvarez

71'

Rubén Cervera← Sergio Martín

71'

Antonio Caballero← Raúl Toro

74'

Ramírez← Zalea

85'

Álex Ros← Jose Luis

Estepona

Alhaurino

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Juan Carlos Puertas

59'▲S. Pishvaie←▼Jesús Álvarez

71'▲Rubén Cervera←▼Sergio Martín

71'▲Antonio Caballero←▼Raúl Toro

85'▲Álex Ros←▼Jose Luis

Estepona substitutes

PishvaieCerveraCaballeroRos

Manager: Francis García

46'▲José←▼E. Yankey

74'▲Ramírez←▼Zalea

Alhaurino substitutes

JoséRamírez

Match Recap: Estepona vs Alhaurino

Estepona and Alhaurino drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 6, 2020.

Goals: Josemi Rey (7'), Fran Castillo (30'), Jose Luis (31', 46').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez in Estepona.

Estepona vs Alhaurino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Estepona vs Alhaurino