Esteghlal Mollasani 0–0 Shams Azar Qazvin

Esteghlal Mollasani

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shams Azar Qazvin

9/13/2022

Azadegan League · Round 4Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Esteghlal Mollasani35%

×Draw31%

Shams Azar Qazvin34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esteghlal MollasaniExpected goals in this matchShams Azar Qazvin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.98

Esteghlal Mollasani

1.00

Shams Azar Qazvin

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 30 away

1.04

creates per match

1.13

0.84

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Esteghlal Mollasani

1.04

Shams Azar Qazvin

1.13

allows per match

Esteghlal Mollasani

0.84

Shams Azar Qazvin

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par

Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Mollasani ↓

Shams Azar Qazvin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Esteghlal Mollasani or draw

66%

Esteghlal Mollasani or Shams Azar Qazvin

69%

Draw or Shams Azar Qazvin

65%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+

13%

Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals

63%

Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals

26%

Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals

8%

Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals

62%

Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals

26%

Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)

51%

Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Mollasani at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Shams Azar Qazvin away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 1.04 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 1.13 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more

35%

level

31%

Shams Azar Qazvin scores more

34%

Esteghlal Mollasani at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Esteghlal Mollasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff