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Esteghlal Mollasani vs Shahin Bandar Ameri — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shahin Bandar Ameri
Shahin Bandar Ameri
5/9/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 30Behnam Mohammadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Esteghlal Mollasani40%
×Draw30%
Shahin Bandar Ameri30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.12
Shahin Bandar Ameri
0.92

Esteghlal Mollasani creates 22% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 10 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.04
Shahin Bandar Ameri
1.00

allows per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
0.84
Shahin Bandar Ameri
1.20

finishing

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par
Shahin Bandar Ameri+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Mollasani ↓

Shahin Bandar Ameri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Esteghlal Mollasani or draw
70%
Esteghlal Mollasani or Shahin Bandar Ameri
70%
Draw or Shahin Bandar Ameri
60%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
17%
Shahin Bandar Ameri wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
67%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
31%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
10%
Shahin Bandar Ameri 1+ goals
60%
Shahin Bandar Ameri 2+ goals
23%
Shahin Bandar Ameri 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
57%
Shahin Bandar Ameri (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Mollasani at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Shahin Bandar Ameri away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 1.04 + Shahin Bandar Ameri defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.12

Shahin Bandar Ameri attack 1.00 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
40%
level
30%
Shahin Bandar Ameri scores more
30%

Esteghlal Mollasani at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Esteghlal Mollasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Esteghlal Mollasani 0–1 Shahin Bandar Ameri

Shahin Bandar Ameri beat Esteghlal Mollasani 1-0 in Azadegan League on May 9, 2024.

The match was played at Behnam Mohammadi Stadium in Masjed Soleyman.