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Esteghlal Mollasani vs Navad Urmia — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
FT
1 – 0
Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
R. Rezaei 61'
5/14/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 24Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Esteghlal Mollasani47%
×Draw33%
Navad Urmia21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.08
Navad Urmia
0.61

Esteghlal Mollasani creates 77% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 47 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.04
Navad Urmia
0.38

allows per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
0.84
Navad Urmia
1.11

finishing

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par
Navad Urmia+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Mollasani ↓

Navad Urmia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Esteghlal Mollasani or draw
79%
Esteghlal Mollasani or Navad Urmia
67%
Draw or Navad Urmia
53%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
19%
Navad Urmia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
66%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
29%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
10%
Navad Urmia 1+ goals
46%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
13%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
69%
Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Mollasani at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Navad Urmia away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.11 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 1.04 + Navad Urmia defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Navad Urmia attack 0.38 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
47%
level
33%
Navad Urmia scores more
21%

Esteghlal Mollasani at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Esteghlal Mollasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
R. Rezaei

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal Mollasani vs Navad Urmia

Esteghlal Mollasani beat Navad Urmia 1-0 in Azadegan League on May 14, 2021.

Goals: R. Rezaei (61').

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.