Esteghlal Mollasani 0–0 Mes Kerman: Result & Stats

Esteghlal Mollasani

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mes Kerman

3/30/2022

Azadegan League · Round 23Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Esteghlal Mollasani34%

×Draw34%

Mes Kerman31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esteghlal MollasaniExpected goals in this matchMes Kerman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

0.81

Esteghlal Mollasani

0.86

Mes Kerman

0.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 116 away

1.04

creates per match

0.78

0.84

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Esteghlal Mollasani

1.04

Mes Kerman

0.78

allows per match

Esteghlal Mollasani

0.84

Mes Kerman

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par

Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Mollasani ↓

Mes Kerman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–115%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Esteghlal Mollasani or draw

69%

Esteghlal Mollasani or Mes Kerman

66%

Draw or Mes Kerman

66%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+

12%

Mes Kerman wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals

58%

Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals

21%

Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals

6%

Mes Kerman 1+ goals

56%

Mes Kerman 2+ goals

19%

Mes Kerman 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)

52%

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Mollasani at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.69 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 1.04 + Mes Kerman defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.86

Mes Kerman attack 0.78 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more

34%

level

34%

Mes Kerman scores more

31%

Esteghlal Mollasani at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Esteghlal Mollasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff