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Esteghlal Mollasani vs Khalij Fars — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Khalij Fars
Khalij Fars
1/18/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 18Ghadir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Esteghlal Mollasani56%
×Draw27%
Khalij Fars17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.44
Khalij Fars
0.66

Esteghlal Mollasani creates 118% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 25 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.04
Khalij Fars
0.48

allows per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
0.84
Khalij Fars
1.84

finishing

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par
Khalij Fars+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Mollasani ↓

Khalij Fars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Esteghlal Mollasani or draw
83%
Esteghlal Mollasani or Khalij Fars
73%
Draw or Khalij Fars
44%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
28%
Khalij Fars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
76%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
42%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
18%
Khalij Fars 1+ goals
48%
Khalij Fars 2+ goals
14%
Khalij Fars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
77%
Khalij Fars (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Mollasani at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Khalij Fars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 1.04 + Khalij Fars defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.44

Khalij Fars attack 0.48 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
56%
level
27%
Khalij Fars scores more
17%

Esteghlal Mollasani at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Esteghlal Mollasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal Mollasani vs Khalij Fars

Esteghlal Mollasani and Khalij Fars drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on January 18, 2023.

The match was played at Ghadir Stadium in Ahwaz.