Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Esteghlal Mollasani vs Darya Babol — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Darya Babol
Darya Babol
10/18/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 9Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Esteghlal Mollasani42%
×Draw32%
Darya Babol26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.08
Darya Babol
0.77

Esteghlal Mollasani creates 40% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 34 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.04
Darya Babol
0.71

allows per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
0.84
Darya Babol
1.12

finishing

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par
Darya Babol+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Mollasani ↓

Darya Babol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Esteghlal Mollasani or draw
74%
Esteghlal Mollasani or Darya Babol
68%
Draw or Darya Babol
58%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
17%
Darya Babol wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
66%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
29%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
10%
Darya Babol 1+ goals
54%
Darya Babol 2+ goals
18%
Darya Babol 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
62%
Darya Babol (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Mollasani at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Darya Babol away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 1.04 + Darya Babol defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Darya Babol attack 0.71 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
42%
level
32%
Darya Babol scores more
26%

Esteghlal Mollasani at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Esteghlal Mollasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Esteghlal Mollasani 2–0 Darya Babol

Esteghlal Mollasani beat Darya Babol 2-0 in Azadegan League on October 18, 2022.

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.