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Esteghlal Mollasani vs Ario Eslamshahr — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ario Eslamshahr
Ario Eslamshahr
12/18/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 17Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Esteghlal Mollasani37%
×Draw33%
Ario Eslamshahr30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Mollasani
0.94
Ario Eslamshahr
0.81

Esteghlal Mollasani creates 16% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 51 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.04
Ario Eslamshahr
0.78

allows per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
0.84
Ario Eslamshahr
0.84

finishing

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par
Ario Eslamshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Mollasani ↓

Ario Eslamshahr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Esteghlal Mollasani or draw
70%
Esteghlal Mollasani or Ario Eslamshahr
67%
Draw or Ario Eslamshahr
63%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
14%
Ario Eslamshahr wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
61%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
24%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
7%
Ario Eslamshahr 1+ goals
56%
Ario Eslamshahr 2+ goals
19%
Ario Eslamshahr 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
55%
Ario Eslamshahr (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Mollasani at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Ario Eslamshahr away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 1.04 + Ario Eslamshahr defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.94

Ario Eslamshahr attack 0.78 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
37%
level
33%
Ario Eslamshahr scores more
30%

Esteghlal Mollasani at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Esteghlal Mollasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal Mollasani vs Ario Eslamshahr

Esteghlal Mollasani beat Ario Eslamshahr 1-0 in Azadegan League on December 18, 2023.

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.