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Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Van Pars Isfahan — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Van Pars Isfahan
Van Pars Isfahan
R. Nabizadeh 90+4' (pen)
A. Goog 79'
3/29/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 27Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan53%
×Draw30%
Van Pars Isfahan17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.23
Van Pars Isfahan
0.56

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 120% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 16 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.26
Van Pars Isfahan
0.56

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.56
Van Pars Isfahan
1.19

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par
Van Pars Isfahan+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Van Pars Isfahan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–19%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw
83%
Esteghlal Khuzestan or Van Pars Isfahan
70%
Draw or Van Pars Isfahan
47%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
24%
Van Pars Isfahan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
71%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
35%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
13%
Van Pars Isfahan 1+ goals
43%
Van Pars Isfahan 2+ goals
11%
Van Pars Isfahan 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
76%
Van Pars Isfahan (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.56 · 66 matches

Van Pars Isfahan away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 1.26 + Van Pars Isfahan defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Van Pars Isfahan attack 0.56 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
53%
level
30%
Van Pars Isfahan scores more
17%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

79'
A. Goog
90+4'
R. NabizadehPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Van Pars Isfahan

Esteghlal Khuzestan beat Van Pars Isfahan 2-0 in Azadegan League on March 29, 2023.

Goals: A. Goog (79'), R. Nabizadeh (90+4' pen).

The match was played at Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan in Ahvaz.