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Esteghlal Khuzestan vs SorkhPooshan Pakdasht — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
FT
1 – 1
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
10/30/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 10Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan45%
×Draw29%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.27
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
0.90

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 41% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 32 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.25
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.25

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.55
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.28

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw
74%
Esteghlal Khuzestan or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
71%
Draw or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
55%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
20%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
72%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
36%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
14%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals
59%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals
23%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
63%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.55 · 67 matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 1.25 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.25 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
45%
level
29%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more
26%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal Khuzestan vs SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

Esteghlal Khuzestan and SorkhPooshan Pakdasht drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on October 30, 2019.

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.