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Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Sepidrood Rasht — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
FT
2 – 0
Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
1/26/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 21Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan58%
×Draw27%
Sepidrood Rasht15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.42
Sepidrood Rasht
0.57

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 149% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.25
Sepidrood Rasht
0.59

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.55
Sepidrood Rasht
1.59

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par
Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Sepidrood Rasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw
85%
Esteghlal Khuzestan or Sepidrood Rasht
73%
Draw or Sepidrood Rasht
42%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
29%
Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
76%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
41%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
17%
Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
43%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
11%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
80%
Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.55 · 67 matches

Sepidrood Rasht away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 1.25 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.59 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
58%
level
27%
Sepidrood Rasht scores more
15%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Esteghlal Khuzestan 2–0 Sepidrood Rasht

Esteghlal Khuzestan beat Sepidrood Rasht 2-0 in Azadegan League on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.