Esteghlal Khuzestan 2–2 Persepolis FC

Esteghlal Khuzestan

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Persepolis FC

12/19/2023

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 13Ghadir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan24%

×Draw30%

Persepolis FC47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esteghlal KhuzestanExpected goals in this matchPersepolis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

1.23

Esteghlal Khuzestan

0.78

Persepolis FC

1.23

Persepolis FC creates 58% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 116 away

0.89

creates per match

1.39

1.07

allows per match

0.66

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan

0.89

Persepolis FC

1.39

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan

1.07

Persepolis FC

0.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Persepolis FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–116%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw

53%

Esteghlal Khuzestan or Persepolis FC

70%

Draw or Persepolis FC

76%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+

7%

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals

54%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals

18%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals

4%

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

71%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

35%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)

33%

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 56 matches

Persepolis FC away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.66 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.89 + Persepolis FC defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.78

Persepolis FC attack 1.39 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more

24%

level

30%

Persepolis FC scores more

47%

Persepolis FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff