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Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Niroye Zamini — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
FT
3 – 1
Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
R. Yazdandoost 82'
F. Amiri 60'
H. Nasari 15'
A. Ekwan 54'
9/21/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 6Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan48%
×Draw31%
Niroye Zamini21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.17
Niroye Zamini
0.67

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 75% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 49 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.26
Niroye Zamini
0.78

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.55
Niroye Zamini
1.08

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par
Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Niroye Zamini →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw
79%
Esteghlal Khuzestan or Niroye Zamini
69%
Draw or Niroye Zamini
52%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
21%
Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
69%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
33%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
11%
Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
49%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
15%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
69%
Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.55 · 65 matches

Niroye Zamini away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 1.26 + Niroye Zamini defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Niroye Zamini attack 0.78 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
48%
level
31%
Niroye Zamini scores more
21%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
H. Nasari
54'
A. Ekwan
60'
F. Amiri
82'
R. Yazdandoost

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Esteghlal Khuzestan 3–1 Niroye Zamini

Esteghlal Khuzestan beat Niroye Zamini 3-1 in Azadegan League on September 21, 2019.

Goals: H. Nasari (15'), A. Ekwan (54'), F. Amiri (60'), R. Yazdandoost (82').

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.